Model Output and Mapping

What is a Model?

A model is an attempt to simulate and predict natural phenomenon (winds, temperature changes in the ocean, etc.) using a combination of observations and complex mathematical systems. When you watch the weather forecast on your local news, the meteorologists are using models to make their predictions. For instance, scientists use the observed characteristics of a hurricane combined with models to predict how the storm might grow or shrink, and where it might travel. Models are also used to understand hypothetical situations, like how an oil spill might be carried across the ocean, or how temperature and currents work to attract plankton and other marine life.

Hindcast (or retrospective) analyses and real-time nowcasts/forecasts of ocean currents and surface elevations are generated daily by SEACOOS researchers. Because the SEACOOS region encompasses water masses that are characterized by radically different geometries and forced by different factors, USF, UNC, and UM use different models to generate hindcasts, nowcasts, and forecasts. Scientists apply a model to a given geographic region to simulate the evolution of conditions in that region.

How Does a Model Work?

A model provides an estimate of the response of a system to given inputs (a.k.a. model forcings). The models implement the equations of motion appropriate for the ocean. So for the display on this page, wind and tide information was entered into the model, which then synthesized that information to produce an estimate of the water level and currents. This information was then rendered via visualization software into the animated image you see now.

What are "Hindcasts" and "Forecasts"?

The SEACOOS models compute estimates of the depth-averaged velocity and surface elevation, forced by winds and tides, over a 24 hour period called the hindcast, and an 84 hour period called the forecast. The hindcast period uses wind fields from the NCEP weather model analysis that incorporates observations of atmospheric wind and temperature. The ocean models are thus forced by a wind field that has been improved with observations. The word hindcast, then, means an estimate based (at least partly) on guidance from observations. Think of "hindsight".

The forecast period is forced by winds from the NCEP weather model forecasts, which uses the NCEP analysis as a starting point. No observations are yet available for the forecasting. Think of "foresight" or "prediction".

Modeling efforts in the SEACOOS region

Selected basin-scale models

Regional: SEACOOS supported

Regional: Others

Click here for HYCOM Visualizations

The protocols for data ownership, custodial liability, data submission and data access have been developed in accordance with known Federal guidelines and/or standards for environmental data collection activities.

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